6 Trends That Will Shape Our Careers in 2024
From Quiet Performing to Working Downstream of AI
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Friends,
When historians write the book on 2023, I expect it will mark a pivot point for some major shifts in human society. Artificial intelligence alone has dramatically increased the likelihood of both utopian and apocalyptic scenarios. That’s to say nothing of the other geopolitical, climatological, and cultural undercurrents fanning the flame of change.
For this newsletter, I’ll focus my analysis on the domain I know best - our careers. My aim is to highlight trends that may impact the way you’ll work in the year ahead.
In previous trend forecasts, I collaborated with a phenomenal group of guests who submitted and shared trends. This year, however, I wanted to experiment with a new format and try coming up with the trends myself. I'm excited to hear what you think.
Without further ado, here are six trends that are poised to shape our careers in 2024:
1. “Doing more with less” becomes achievable
Last year, droves of knowledge workers attended ominous all-hands meetings where executives challenged them to “do more with less.” In the past, mandates like this have rightly elicited eye rolls. However, as of 2023, this ask seems less unreasonable.
Today, every knowledge worker can access powerful AI tools that can realistically increase output without requiring additional input. With profitability goals motivating companies to cut costs and AI enabling greater leverage, conditions seem ripe for a profound productivity boom. While the full impact will take years to materialize, 2024 may showcase the first success stories.
Implications
If employees start seeing productivity gains from AI, we may also see:
Scrutiny of managers who previously amassed power via headcount expansion, as smaller teams accomplish more
Increased competitiveness of overseas hires as language ceases to be a barrier and willingness to accept lower wages becomes an edge
High-agency workers leveraging AI to perform exponentially better than average
2. Leaders get into the details
During the zero-interest rate era, many CEOs convinced themselves that leadership simply meant hiring smart people and staying out of their way. But, as capital markets tighten and leaders take stock of their bloated headcounts, many executives recognize that they got too far out of the way.
Come 2024, leaders will get into the details. For instance, Airbnb's CEO Brian Chesky now runs weekly product reviews. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong now personally greenlights all new hires. The executives who successfully make this transition will be those who can adopt the role of a coach to their people rather than acting like micromanagers.
Implications
As leaders get into the details of their businesses, we may see:
Flatter organizational structures with fewer middle managers to keep executives connected to what’s actually going on
Better career pathing for individual contributors to accommodate reduced management opportunities
3. Software as a Service → Software provides a service
In the coming years, AI-centric startups will disrupt SaaS incumbents by enabling companies to pay for outcomes rather than licenses. As AI models progress, these vendors may also provide an alternative to expanding headcount.
Currently, managers perfect hiring skills but invest little in mastering vendor selection. However, as AI companies directly deliver services, leaders will need to weigh solving problems through staffing up or procuring software. The most successful ones will become as discerning about buying technology as they are about hiring humans.
Implications
As software begins providing more services, we would expect to see:
Tighter collaboration between CHROs and CIOs to think more holistically about the ways work gets done
Senior leaders with no direct reports, who are entrusted with larger remits
4. Succession Planning Gets Urgent
By 2030, 1 in 5 Americans will be over 65. This seismic population shift has put pressure on HR leaders to develop succession plans before potential health issues or retirement decisions spur sudden C-suite vacancies.
In coming years many more organizations will begin evaluating VP and SVP-level leaders to determine which rising executives are capable of assuming greater responsibility.
Implications
As succession planning gets more critical, we will likely see:
More focus on developing high-potential employees, with tailored plans to support faster promotion into leadership roles
Increased focus on retaining top talent who are capable of filling critical executive roles
Tactical reorgs to get ahead of executive departures via shifting reporting lines and creating new transitional roles
5. Working Downstream from AI
By now, millions have experienced what it’s like to work upstream from AI, commanding it to write emails or edit documents. But in 2024, many will discover what it means to work downstream from AI, executing tasks assigned by algorithms.
For some workers, this dynamic will be a familiar one. Amazon warehouse pickers and Doordash drivers already receive marching orders from software. But in 2024, new classes of white-collar workers may start experiencing software-based management. Some will find this transition jarring and dystopian. Others may come to prefer software-based management over their former human supervisor.
Implications
As more people start working downstream of AI, we would expect to see:
Managers gaining more capacity as AI assistants allow them to oversee two or three times more direct reports
Annual reviews fading as always-on productivity platforms enable continuous feedback
Increased need for human connection as collaborating with and taking direction from software becomes more prevalent
6. Quiet Performing
If 2022 was the year of quiet quitting, and 2023 brought quiet firing, 2024 will restore the time-honored tradition of “Quiet Performing.”
After four years of macro shocks, punctuated by 2023’s epidemic of white-collar layoffs, many companies are looking to rebuild confidence and focus among employees. While an emphasis on performance management will likely remain, many companies will strive to rebuild the psychological safety that is necessary for high performance.
Likewise, after witnessing 2023’s brutally competitive job market, few employees are feeling emboldened to return to pandemic-era job-hopping. For workers, 2024 will be a year of keeping their heads down and concentrating on the work at hand.
While these six trends hardly capture the full landscape of forces that will shape our working lives, they do highlight some important shifts that are worth tracking.
The coming year will be filled with opportunity. Rather than passively waiting for change to happen to you, I’d encourage you to keep your head up and take proactive steps to make the most of this exciting moment.
Thank you all for continuing to subscribe to this newsletter. I hope 2024 brings you growth, fulfillment, and fun.
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Holiday Offer (For subscribers only)
Readers,
As many of you know, I recently Co-founded a tech-enabled talent development agency called Exec (exec.com). Beyond working with companies to design flexible talent development programs, we’ve also matched thousands of individuals with world-class coaches.
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P.S. If you’d like to gift coaching to someone in your life, I’m also happy to provide this as a service for them, as well. If you’d like to do that, just reply to this email.
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Until next time,
Nick
We have a mental health crisis and it’s getting worse. Although AI can help with productivity, it works against human connection, personal creativity, and collaboration which are critical elements in supporting positive well-being.